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# Integrating Autonomous Vehicles and Public Transit
- URL: https://www.zhaojinhua.com/integrating-av-singapore/
- Published: 2026-09-01T19:58:06.000Z
- Updated: 2026-09-22T01:13:45.000Z
- Description: Singapore as A Case Study of the "Expand First-Mile access" Strategy
- Author: Jinhua Zhao
- Tags: Autonomous Vehicle, Memos, Public Transport, Transportation Planning

There are three broad strategies to integrate autonomous vehicles (AVs) with public transport:

1. Expand first-mile access to transit
2. Replace low-productivity bus routes
3. Re-optimize Transit network

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-21-at-9.01.04---PM.png)

I use Singapore as the case study of the first strategy. To get this right, all three conditions must be met: Better service for passengers; No increase in road congestion ; A viable business model for AVs. 

#### The Context: First-Mile Frictions in Singapore

Singapore—a city-state with one of the world’s most efficient public transport systems. The MRT and LRT systems are dense, fast, and well-used.

How can AVs help solve the **first-mile problem**—getting people from their homes to transit stations efficiently, affordably, and comfortably?

The map below shows MRT ridership and first-mile access patterns during the morning peak hours (7–9 am), revealing the crucial role of buses in connecting commuters to the train network.

Tampines: 52% rely on buses ; Woodlands: 55%; Bedok: 61%

A pressing need to **strengthen first-mile connectivity**.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/image.png)

Singapore MRT ridership & first mile access: workday 7-9am

#### Tampines

Tampines is a high-density residential area. We conducted a detailed mapping of **bus boardings and alightings** around the MRT station during peak hours, giving us a granular view of travel behavior.

**Not all routes are created equal.**

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/image-1.png)

Buses serving Tampines MRT Station

#### A Hybrid Strategy to Augment—Not Replace—Buses

In Tampines, we proposed a hybrid strategy:

- **Preserve** the 16 busiest bus routes that serve **90% of demand**
- **Repurpose** the remaining 11 low-ridership routes (10% of demand) with **on-demand AV services**

We didn’t eliminate those 11 routes. Instead, we **strategically rerouted them**—allowing buses to focus on **high-demand corridors**, while AVs serve **scattered, low-density areas**.

Routes like **Bus 3\_2** and **Bus 21\_1** were used as examples—showing how small redesigns can unlock AV integration.

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/image-2.png)

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/image-3.png)

Bus Rerouting Example #1: Strategy for Bus Route 3

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/image-4.png)

Bus Rerouting Example #2: Strategy for Bus Route 21

#### The Simulation: Behind the Scenes

We built an **agent-based simulation** to model three key actors:

- **Passengers** choosing travel modes based on time and cost
- **AV operators** managing fleet size, pricing, and dispatching
- **Bus agencies** adjusting routes and schedules

We measured three outcomes:

1. **Out-of-Vehicle Time (OVT)** Walking + waiting time—ensuring service quality for passengers
2. **Vehicle Kilometers Traveled (VKT)** A proxy for traffic impact—ensuring the system doesn’t worsen congestion
3. **Profitability** Making sure AV operators can survive financially

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/image-6.png)

##### The Narrow Window: Triple Win Requires Precision

To make this work, we must hit **all three goals**:

- **Better service for passengers**
- **No increase in road congestion**
- **Viable business model for AVs**

The window for an integrated AV-PT system exists – but is narrow. 

Integration itself does not guarantee success. It requires intentional design. 

\[P.S. The narrowness may reflect that the fact that the existing bus network in Singapore is efficient to start with. \]

##### The Future: Trains, Buses, and AVs—Each Doing What They Do Best

Imagine a system where: Trains serve trunk corridors. Buses serve high-density feeders. AVs fill in the rest—on-demand, shared, and responsive. 

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/image-7.png)

![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/4a/3d/4a3d3e5d-18ea-4656-a425-4dc671578d23/content/images/2026/09/Screenshot-2026-09-21-at-9.01.21---PM.png)

*—* Jinhua

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Methodology Paper: Integrating Shared Autonomous Vehicle in Public Transportation System: A Supply-Side Simulation of the First-Mile Service in Singapore, Transportation Research Part A ([full paper](https://www.dropbox.com/scl/fi/dwam5g7wq4ng92mfjiqcq/AV-PT-Singapore.pdf?rlkey=c1glgie5d8s5k04ny820v10tv&dl=0&ref=zhaojinhua.com))